HOW TO BET THE FINAL WEEKS BEFORE THE PLAYOFFS By Rob Crowne © Rob Crowne Assoc. December 23, 2012 NFL Playoff time is almost here again. Sports bettors always seem surprised by some of the results in the final 2-3 weeks before the playoffs. Just this past Sunday, for example, New England, one of the best teams in the NFL this season, was favored by 14 points but struggled to beat one of the worst teams in the... Read more

The Hilton Consensus “Everything is relative.” -- Albert Einstein This past week Minnesota was selected by 145 contestants. Only 16 contestants picked against Minnesota by selecting Arizona. Despite the 129-contestant differential between those picking Minnesota and those picking Arizona, Minnesota did not make it into the Top 5 Consensus posted around the net. Instead, Tennessee was installed in 5th Place in the Consensus... Read more

The Preseason Admonition warns against using Preseason NFL performance to handicap the regular season. As with almost every admonition, however, there are exceptions. One of those exceptions occurs in cases in which a team tries to win in the Preseason, but can't beat an opponent that is simply going through the motions. One of the most important factors in handicapping NFL exhibition games is the intention of each... Read more

As with all meaningless games, no edge can be gained by attempting to handicap the winning side in the Pro Bowl using fundamental statistics. The use of won-lost trends between the AFC and NFC to predict results is also precluded due to the NFL's maintenance of equality between the Conferences. The Pro Bowl rules provide little room for an advantage based on coaching. Finally, the length of time that any player will be... Read more

Observations of a Professional Handicapper Sunday, December 10, 2010 J ets/Pittsburgh total of 36 If you bet the Jets at Pittsburgh to score less than 36 points, here's a lesson for you that will allow you to profit from the folly and misconceptions of the general public. The only reason the total was the lowest on the board all week is that snow was predicted in Pittsburgh. In fact, it did snow. The public... Read more

HILTON CONTEST – MORE OBSERVATIONS Coming into this week, after 50 selections, all of the contestants have fallen under 70%. None of the top 5 contestants could do any better than 3-2 this week, and all are now below 69%. This season is no different from every other season in that regard. Remember that the next time some tout claims to have been 74% last season. If he passes the lie detector test on that question,... Read more

Normal 0 HILTON NFL CONTEST - A BAD BET © Robert Crowne & Assoc., Sept. 10, 2010 Note: The Las Vegas Hilton Supercontest is a trademark of the Las Vegas Hilton. The Hilton Supercontest has been peopled, in the main, by existing sports services trying to make a reputation for themselves, entrants seeking to launch a sports service career based on the publicity... Read more

Unlike the regular season, won-lost records are one of the most important handicapping tools in the preseason. In some cases, SU won-lost trends are the only handicapping tool available for a preseason game. They must, however, be used properly and with the exercise of common sense. The handicapper uses won-lost records as an indication of coaching attitude. When attempting to discern coaching attitudes, some analysts... Read more

Favorite Phobia is a form of psychosis that afflicts otherwise reasonable and rational bettors during baseball season. Victims of the dread Favorite Phobia are filled with fear and loathing at the mere thought of a money line set at 2-1 or higher. As the line on a favorite rises above –160, sufferers begin to shake. The closer the line gets to 2-1 the worse the shaking becomes. At –200, the Favorite Phobic hits the wall... Read more

I'm not sure what happened, but I posted this hours ago, and when I came back to look at it, only three people had managed to view it and the rest were apparently getting a 404 Error Page. I could not get the original post to show up no matter what I did. I had to delete the first article, then wash the text in Notepad, and then repost the whole thing. Hopefully it will now show up properly. I blame this all on Bill Gates... Read more